Will interest rates go down by 2024 UK?
The financial markets expect three cuts of 0.25 percentage points this year, forecasting the first to take place in June. The Bank said its survey of financial companies found that they expected rates to fall to 4.5% before the end of 2024.
Mortgage rates are expected to decline later this year as the U.S. economy weakens, inflation slows and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid- to low-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
The Bank of England will cut the base rate to around 3 per cent by in 2025, according to the latest forecasts from Capital Economics. Wider market expectations continue to also all point towards the Bank of England cutting the base rate later in 2024, albeit they have been revised up since the start of the year.
Here's where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading: Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: "Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%," says Haymore. "By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower."
2025/2026 UK Interest Rate Predictions
Lowest Projection for Q1 2025: 30 Rates forecasts 3.5%. Highest Projection for Q4 2025: The Bank of England predicts interest rates in 2025 will stabilise at 3.4%. Lowest Lowest Projection for Q4 2025: 30 Rates anticipates a significant drop to 1.75%.
It's possible that rates will one day go back down to 3%, though if current trends hold that's not likely to happen anytime soon.
After its December 2023 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) predicted making three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024 to lower the federal funds rate to 4.6%. Inflation has started to recede, but the committee has signaled it wants to see more positive data before pulling the trigger.
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) does not expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates until 2026, predicting that the base rate will stay at 5.25% for at least two more years.
On 21 March 2024, the Bank of England held the base rate at 5.25% for the fifth time in a row. Financial markets are currently predicting the first cut in interest rates will be in June 2024, falling to around 3% by the end of 2025, according to the latest forecasts from Capital Economics.
How high will the UK interest rates go? Analysts mentioned in this article predicted that the rate may peak at around 4.5% before easing in 2024 and falling further into 2025 and 2026. Note that their predictions can be wrong.
Will mortgage rates ever drop below 5 again?
The good news is that inflation is cooling, and many experts expect interest rates to move in a downward direction in 2024. Then again, a two-point drop would be significant, and even if rates fall, they're not likely to get down to 5% within the next year.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Thursday was 6.99%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
Monetary Policy Summary. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 31 January 2024, the MPC voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25%.
Inflation is expected to fall below 2% and remain at that level from the last quarter of 2025 onwards, with the BoE projecting to cut rates from 5.25% to around 3.25% by Q1 2027, the end of its forecast period.
However, the overall outlook for mortgage rates in 2024 suggests more rate drops, with Bright MLS forecasts predicting rates to hit 6.2% by the fourth quarter.”
| Source | Projected 30-year mortgage rate (by end of 2024) |
|---|---|
| Mortgage Bankers Association | 6.1% |
| Fannie Mae | 5.8% |
| Realtor.com | 6.5% |
| Redfin | 6.6% |
If inflation falls significantly and the economy enters a deep recession, it is possible that mortgage rates could fall back to 3%. However, this scenario is considered unlikely by most economists.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
Mortgage giant Fannie Mae likewise raised its outlook, now expecting 30-year mortgage rates to be at 6.4 percent by the end of 2024, compared to an earlier forecast of 5.8 percent.
What is the prime rate forecast for 2024?
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| December 31, 2024 | 3.50% |
| September 30, 2024 | 5.75% |
| June 30, 2024 | 5.75% |
| March 31, 2024 | 5.75% |
The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced at its March 2024 meeting that it would maintain the overnight federal funds rate at the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
Interest Rates for 2021 to 2027. CBO projects that the interest rates on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes will average 2.8 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, during the 2021–2027 period. The federal funds rate is projected to average 3.1 percent.
Deciding whether to fix your mortgage for 2, 3, 5 or even more years can be a difficult decision, as it will depend on your individual circ*mstances and your appetite for risk. If you're looking for certainty and peace of mind, a 5-year fixed rate mortgage may be the right choice for you.
A recession typically means that interest rates will fall to make it easy to borrow money and credit in a way that should help encourage spending.
