What are interest rates expected to be in 2026?
The nation's top economists say the Fed is most likely to keep interest rates higher than 2.5 percent — often considered the “goldilocks,” not-too-tight, not-too-loose level for its benchmark federal funds rate — until the end of 2026, Bankrate's quarterly economists' poll found.
Driving the news: The median Fed official now expects interest rates to be somewhat higher in 2025 and 2026 than they did in December — anticipating fewer rate cuts will be justified in the coming two years. The median projection for the longer-run rate also ticked up, to 2.6% from 2.5%.
The upper boundary of the Federal Reserve's target range for its benchmark interest rate, currently 5.5%, will fall only to 4% by the end of 2025, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey. That's a half percentage point higher than respondents expected just a month ago.
| 2024 Forecast | 2025 Forecast | |
|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Mortgage Bankers Association | 6.1%* | 5.6% |
| National Association of Home Builders | 6.61% | 6.01% |
| National Association of Realtors | 6.5% | 6.1% |
It's possible that rates will one day go back down to 3%, though if current trends hold that's not likely to happen anytime soon.
Interest Rates for 2021 to 2027. CBO projects that the interest rates on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes will average 2.8 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, during the 2021–2027 period. The federal funds rate is projected to average 3.1 percent.
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Thursday was 6.99%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.
Here's where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading: Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: "Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%," says Haymore. "By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower."
They also predict that mortgage rates will peak at 9.41% in May 2024, before gradually declining to 3.67% by November 2027.
Will interest rates go down again in 2025?
1) Interest-rate forecast.
We project the federal-funds rate target range to fall from 5.25% to 5.50% currently to 4.00% to 4.25% by the end of 2024, to 2.50% to 2.75% by the end of 2025, and to 1.75% to 2.00% by end of 2026, after which the Fed will be done cutting.
Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%. Such a level would be much higher than has been typical since the turn of the century. Three-month bill rates averaged around 1.5% over that period.
| Big Bank | Cash Rate Peak in 2024 |
|---|---|
| Commonwealth Bank | 4.35% p.a. |
| ANZ | 4.35% p.a. |
| Westpac | 4.35% p.a. |
| NAB | 4.35% p.a. |
Interest rates have held steady since July 2023.
The Fed raised the rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023 to combat ongoing inflation. After its December 2023 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) predicted making three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024 to lower the federal funds rate to 4.6%.
If those projections remain and the Fed begins to lower its key rate, mortgage rates will presumably follow suit. Sunbury predicts the Fed will cut rates by between 100 to 125 basis points starting in May or June of 2024. “This would bring the policy rate to 4% to 4.25%,” Sunbury explains.
But will the new car market improve in 2024? “We do expect that auto loan rates will come down this year, once the Federal Reserve starts to reduce interest rates,” Chief Financial Analyst for Bankrate Greg McBride said.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Friday is 6.91%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%. While Wells Faro's model expects 5.8%, and the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates 5.5%.
Yields are expected to remain at the highest levels in over a decade despite two rate cuts from the Fed, McBride says. The average yield on a 1-year certificate of deposit (CD) should fall to 1.15 percent nationally in the year ahead from its current 1.77 percent level, according to McBride's 2024 forecast.
| Best 1-Year CDs - Mature Early 2025 | APY | Minimum |
|---|---|---|
| Best 3-Year CDs - Mature 2027 | Rate | Minimum |
| Lafayette Federal Credit Union | 5.10% | $ 500 |
| EFCU Financial | 5.00% | $ 500 |
| DollarSavingsDirect | 5.00% | $ 1,000 |
Legally speaking, there's no limit to how many times you can refinance your mortgage, so you can refinance as often as it makes financial sense for you. Depending on your lender and the type of loan, though, you might encounter a waiting period — also called a seasoning requirement.
At what point does it make sense to refinance?
A rule of thumb says that you'll benefit from refinancing if the new rate is at least 1% lower than the rate you have. More to the point, consider whether the monthly savings is enough to make a positive change in your life, or whether the overall savings over the life of the loan will benefit you substantially.
While McBride had expected mortgage rates to fall to 5.75 percent by late 2024, the new economic reality means they're likely to hover in the range of 6.25 percent to 6.4 percent by the end of the year, he says.
As a rule of thumb, experts often say that it's not usually worth it to refinance unless your interest rate drops by at least 0.5% to 1%. But that may not be true for everyone.
Buying Mortgage Discount Points
For example, if you are offered a 6 percent interest rate on a $100,000 loan, you can pay one point ($1,000) to get a 5.75 percent interest rate instead. You can buy down your interest rate by up to 1.0 percent to reduce your interest costs and get a lower payment.
What to expect from mortgage rates in 2024. Mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, but most housing market experts predict rates will move toward 6% by the end of 2024. Ultimately, a more affordable mortgage market will depend on how quickly the Fed begins cutting interest rates.
