Is it a good time to refinance 2024?
Experts suggest that 2024 will be an excellent time to refinance your home, whether to lock in a lower interest rate, take out extra cash using your home equity or to get out from under loan terms that just weren't working well for you.
Experts are hopeful that mortgage rates will continue to decline this year as inflation cools and interest rates are cut. More homeowners should be able to take advantage of refinancing their mortgages in 2024, even if the housing market doesn't make a full rebound.
Mortgage rates are expected to decline later this year as the U.S. economy weakens, inflation slows and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid- to low-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
Inflation is anticipated to keep falling in 2024 and may reach the BoE's 2% target earlier than expected. As inflation has declined faster than expected this year, the BoE could start cutting the base rate in 2024 and possibly fall to 4% by the end of next year, according to data from private bank Berenberg.
You can't get a lower interest rate: If your goal is to reduce your interest costs, right now isn't the best time to refinance. You're likely to end up with a higher rate, plus you'll need to cover closing costs on your new mortgage.
That means the mortgage rates will likely be in the 6% to 7% range for most of the year.” Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). MBA's baseline forecast is for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to end 2024 at 6.1% and reach 5.5% at the end of 2025 as Treasury rates decline and the spread narrows.
Many experts predict interest rates will remain at their current level for most of 2024. This may mean that mortgage rates stay at or about the same level as now for many months before possibly starting to fall towards the end of 2024.
The MBA's forecast suggests that 30-year mortgage rates will fall into the 6.1% to 6.8% range in 2024, and NAR's forecast is very similar, predicting that rates will remain in the 6.1% to 6.8% range.
While McBride had expected mortgage rates to fall to 5.75 percent by late 2024, the new economic reality means they're likely to hover in the range of 6.25 percent to 6.4 percent by the end of the year, he says.
| Source | Projected 30-year mortgage rate (by end of 2024) |
|---|---|
| Mortgage Bankers Association | 6.1% |
| Fannie Mae | 5.8% |
| Realtor.com | 6.5% |
| Redfin | 6.6% |
Will 2024 be a better time to buy a house?
Many prospective homebuyers chose to wait things out in 2023, in the hopes that 2024 would bring a more advantageous market. But so far, with mortgage interest rates still relatively high and housing inventory stubbornly low, it looks like 2024 will remain a challenging time to buy a house.
After all, higher rates equate to higher minimum payments. So, you may be wondering if, and when, mortgage rates might fall to 3% or lower again - and whether or not it's worth waiting to buy a home until they do. Although rates could fall to 3% again one day, it's not likely to happen any time soon.
Here's where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading: Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: "Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%," says Haymore. "By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower."
An often-quoted rule of thumb says that if mortgage rates are lower than your current rate by 1% or more, it might be a good idea to refinance.
Moving into a longer-term loan: If you're already at least halfway through the loan term, it's unlikely you'll save money refinancing. You've already reached the point where more of your payment is going to loan principal than interest; refinancing now means you'll restart the clock and pay more toward interest again.
Key Takeaways. Don't refinance if you have a long break-even period—the number of months to reach the point when you start saving. Refinancing to lower your monthly payment is great unless you're spending more money in the long-run.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Thursday was 6.99%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.
Some experts say you should only refinance when you can lower your interest rate, shorten your loan term or both—but those aren't the only reasons. For example, you might need short-term relief from a lower monthly payment, even if it means starting over with a new 30-year loan.
Mortgage rates are going to stay above 6% through 2025, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs. Goldman said the decline in mortgage rates should offer marginal improvements in housing affordability. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.62% last week after hitting a cycle-high of 7.8%.
Refinance closing costs commonly run between 2% and 6% of the loan principal. For example, if you're refinancing a $225,000 mortgage balance, you can expect to pay between $4,500 and $13,500. Like purchase loans, mortgage refinancing carries standard fees, such as origination fees and multiple third-party charges.
How high could mortgage rates go by 2025?
Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to decline gradually over the next two years, reaching 6.9% for the 30-year mortgage by 2025. The slow decline in rates is expected to trigger a modest rebound in home sales, according to its latest economic forecast report.
Legally speaking, there's no limit to how many times you can refinance your mortgage, so you can refinance as often as it makes financial sense for you. Depending on your lender and the type of loan, though, you might encounter a waiting period — also called a seasoning requirement.
The Bottom Line
You pay closing costs and fees when you close on a refinance – just like when you signed on your original loan. You might see appraisal fees, attorney fees and title insurance fees all rolled up into closing costs. Generally, you'll pay about 3% – 6% of your refinance loan's value in closing costs.
Any time for a simple or rate-and-term refinance; after seven months for a streamlined refinance; after 12 months for a cash-out refinance (can vary by lender). You must have made on-time payments for the past six months; 12 months for a cash-out refinance.
| Product | Interest Rate | APR |
|---|---|---|
| 20-year fixed-rate | 7.043% | 7.148% |
| 15-year fixed-rate | 6.381% | 6.518% |
| 10-year fixed-rate | 6.178% | 6.376% |
| 7-year ARM | 7.515% | 7.985% |
