Are interest rates good or bad for the economy?
The Fed lowers interest rates in order to stimulate economic growth, as lower financing costs can encourage borrowing and investing. However, when rates are too low, they can spur excessive growth and subsequent inflation, reducing purchasing power and undermining the sustainability of the economic expansion.
When the central bank increases interest rates, borrowing becomes more expensive. In this environment, both consumers and businesses might think twice about taking out loans for major purchases or investments. This slows down spending, typically lowering overall demand and hopefully reducing inflation.
When interest rates are negative, lenders pay borrowers for holding debt. This means that someone gets paid interest for holding a loan, such as a mortgage or personal loan. As such, banks lose out while borrowers benefit. Savers, on the other hand, lose out.
The interest rate for each different type of loan depends on the credit risk, time, tax considerations, and convertibility of the particular loan.
How do higher interest rates affect the economy? Higher interest rates affect the economy in a number of ways: from curbing consumer spending and stalling business growth to determining the value of a country's currency and the performance of financial markets.
When interest rates fall, people and companies borrow more and save less. Output and productivity increase and boost economic growth.
The transmission of monetary policy
Changes in interest rates influence people's decisions to invest or consume, which ultimately affects economic growth, employment and inflation. This occurs through a number of channels (see Explainer: The Transmission of Monetary Policy).
Higher interest rates have gotten a bad rap, but over the long term, they may provide more income for savers and help investors allocate capital more efficiently. In a higher-rate environment, equity investors can seek opportunities in value-oriented and defensive sectors as well as international stocks.
The years 2022 and 2023 bucked the usual trend a bit. High interest rates typically cause the economy to crash, after which interest rates are lowered to stimulate activity again. However, things have played out slightly differently during the COVID-19-induced economic downturn and the following recovery.
Higher interest rates typically slow down the economy since it costs more for consumers and businesses to borrow money. But while higher interest rates can make it more expensive to borrow and could hamper overall economic growth, there are also some benefits.
What are bad interest rates?
Generally, what's considered a bad interest rate is anything higher than 10%. Ideally, you want to get an interest rate that's below 5% — but with little or bad credit, that can be harder to achieve.
Negative interest rates are used by central banks to stimulate economic growth and combat deflation. In Japan, negative interest rates were an “extraordinary form of large-scale monetary easing that has continued for many years,” said Seisaku Kameda, the Executive Economist at the Sompo Institute Plus.
At the same time, demand for some products soared: pandemic-era stimulus programs left shoppers with extra cash to spend, and everyone wanted to buy the same types of things. More recently, inflation has been driven mostly by the cost of buying or renting a home.
Higher interest rates are generally a policy response to rising inflation. Conversely, when inflation is falling and economic growth slowing, central banks may lower interest rates to stimulate the economy.
High inflation, a strong housing market, and policy changes by the Federal Reserve have all pushed rates higher in 2022 and 2023. However, if the U.S. does indeed enter a recession, mortgage rates could come down.
Monetary policy primarily involves changing interest rates to control inflation. Governments through fiscal policy, however, can assist in fighting inflation. Governments can reduce spending and increase taxes as a way to help reduce inflation.
The losers. Bond-fund investors, borrowers, and certain industries feel the pinch as soon as rates move upward: Bond funds, which regularly buy and sell their underlying holdings, can experience losses in the net asset value in the short term due to the inverse relationship between rates and bond prices.
Lower interest rates increases aggregate demand by stimulating spending. But it can take a while for the supply of goods and services to respond because more workers, equipment and infrastructure may be required to produce them.
Key Takeaways. A zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) occurs when a central bank sets its target short-term interest rate at or close to 0%. The goal of ZIRP is to spur economic activity by encouraging low-cost borrowing and greater access to cheap credit by firms and individuals.
Many experts predict interest rates will remain at their current level for most of 2024. This may mean that mortgage rates stay at or about the same level as now for many months before possibly starting to fall towards the end of 2024.
Why are interest rates so high?
When the Prime Rate is high, borrowing money is more expensive. This causes increased interest rates and lower spending. This also effectively lowers inflation. This is why the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in 2022, to fight rising inflation.
In an inflationary environment, unevenly rising prices inevitably reduce the purchasing power of some consumers, and this erosion of real income is the single biggest cost of inflation. Inflation can also distort purchasing power over time for recipients and payers of fixed interest rates.
As corporations and households get overextended and face difficulties in meeting their debt obligations, they reduce investment and consumption, which in turn leads to a decrease in economic activity. Not all such credit booms end up in recessions, but when they do, these recessions are often more costly than others.
Interest Rates and The Stock Market
It's not just consumer purchases that interest rates can impact. When interest rates rise it's also more expensive for businesses to borrow money. This often means less growth and lower profit expectations. In theory, this should lower the share price of a company.
When interest rates are higher, banks make more money by taking advantage of the greater spread between the interest they pay to their customers and the profits they earn by investing. A bank can earn a full percentage point more than it pays in interest simply by lending out the money at short-term interest rates.
