Hi Everyone,
I hope this finds you well as we ease into summer!
Have you seen or HEARD our plague of cicadas?
In Birmingham and Homewood, I have not heard or seen a single red eyed bug. But, while attending my school reunion held near Alabaster, the drone of the blasted things lived up to their billing as “deafening”. I never had one land in my hair, but one did come perilously close.
So, in a year where we have had an eclipse, an aurora and a LOUD chorus of cicadas, what other adventures await us as the year progresses on?
All I can say is “buy a bug net” as wish you a happy, safe and drama free summer!
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2024-2025 officers for ALERT!
The results of the 2024 are in and your Officers are:
• President: Johnnie Knobloch, KJ4OPX
• Vice President: Casey Benefield, NZ2O
• Treasurer & Membership: Bill Rodgers, K4FSO
• Secretary: Justin Glass, N0ZO
Thank you for your dedication and willingness to serve!
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins
The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1. The National Hurricane Center, to err on the side of caution in case there was an early arriving storm, began issuing outlooks on May 15.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued 2024 outlook, released May 23, and is calling for the most intense Atlantic hurricane ever. NOAA predicts a likely range of 17 to 25 named storms, of which 8 to 13 could become hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes.
This is the most storms NOAA has ever predicted in a preseason outlook.
NOAA provides these ranges with 85% confidence in an intense season. A 10% chance of an average hurricane season, which normally produces 14 named storms, of which 7 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes and 5% chance of a below normal season.
As mentioned last month, Colorado State University is calling for an “extremely active” season, with 23 named storms.
CSU says there is a 62% chance of the US having a major hurricane landfall, as opposed to the “normal” 43% chance. The call for a 42% chance of the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle having a major hurricane landfall and 34% chance that the East Coast and Florida Peninsula will be struck.
Accuweather predicts a “well above average” or “explosive”, season and the UK Tropical Storm Risk,com outlook calls for a “hyper-active” season.
Out of 20 major hurricane season outlooks, all but 2 call for an above average season, calling for 50% more hurricanes than normal.
La Niña conditions are forecast to return this summer around the peak of hurricane season, During La Niña wind shear dies down, which helps promote tropical activity. Add to this
sea-surface temperatures that are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Atlantic, and you have the prime ingredients for an exceptionally active year.
In the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really matter how many storms form, what matters is where they end up arriving. A year with 28 storms that never reach land isn’t overly significant, where a year with only one named storm and it being a repeat of Katrina, Camille or Andrew is.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
The following is an annual tradition, and the only Newsletter rerun that you ever see. As it seems to grow a little longer year by year. And it possibly making the length of the newsletter somewhat oppressive, I considered omitting this, as I don’t want the Newsletter to become a novel. But, since I do think the information is of value, and hopefully of interest, I’m including it. And, so without further ado, I present:
Mark’s Hurricane Guide 2024
With the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning it is a good time to review our preparedness plans.
The source for much of this information is the late John Hope of the National Hurricane Center and later The Weather Channel.
While at the NHC, Hope developed a theory called the John Hope Rule. It consists of two parts. Part 1 states: “If a system is not a bona fide tropical storm before crossing the Windward Islands, or the Lesser Antilles, it will not survive the trek across the Eastern Caribbean Sea. If the wave is still present, formation in the Western Caribbean is possible.” Part 2 states: “If the structure of a wave or storm is good, never discount it or write it off”.
I call that “The Oops Rule” for when something shouldn’t have developed, but it does it anyway.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response
Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways:
1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama. Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan, and Katrina.
2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc. Rita’s feeder bands being a good example, which dropped 21
tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4-hour period.
3. Distant Impact – A storm that is not even near Alabama but affecting our weather. Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico. Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding.
ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2. ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and using a liaison station to monitor HF offsite on 3.965 MHz or the backup 40-meter frequency of 7.243 MHz
Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout.
HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are:
Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times.
3.965 MHz Alabama Emergency Net Mike 4:00 PM Sunday*
3.940 MHz Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net 6:00 PM
3.975 MHz Georgia Single Sideband Net 7:30 PM
3.910 MHz Louisiana Traffic Net 6:30 PM
3.862 MHz Mississippi Section Phone Net 6:00 PM
3.873 MHz Texas Traffic Net 6:30 PM
* Note that this is also the frequency of the Alabama Traffic Net Mike, meeting daily at 6:00 PM Central Time & Sunday’s at 8:00 AM Central Time and the Alabama Day Net, which meets daily at 10:00 AM Central Time.
Wide Coverage Nets
14.235 MHz Hurricane Watch Net As Needed
3.935 MHz Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net 1:00 UTC
The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass. Normally you shouldn’t check into this net, but only listen. Only check in if you have a legitimate need to do so. A legitimate need being emergency or priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up. Occasionally, if there is a lull in activity, they may give a call for general check-ins. But don’t be surprised if they don’t. Helping stations in the affected area is their primary concern.
Once upon a time a, which if I remember correctly was in 1988 when Gilbert, was rearranging Jamaica, the NCS asked “do we have any stations in the affected area, the affected area only?” Some fellow from Zero-land, piped in and very slowly drawled out “This is Kay Zero Que Arr Emmm, Homer over in Tulsa Oklahoma, just wanting to tell you fellers what a fine job, a fine job you fellers are doing. And, if I can be of any help, any help at all just let me know. This is Homer, K0QRM, over in Tulsa Oklahoma on frequency and standing by on the side.”
What harm was done? You might ask.
First, it hampers any emergency traffic trying to reach the net.
Fifteen distress calls probably could have been received and handled in the time it took Homer to ooze over “on the side”.
Secondly, it exacerbates the problem of NCS operator fatigue. Sometimes the adrenalin rush of the moment can keep an NCS sharp and “in the game” as it did with Ivan when I was on the air at K4NWS for 16 hours straight, but, minus that adrenalin rush, when it’s just station after station, checking in hour after hour, just so they can say they checked in, it can wear an NCS out.
So, learn from a bad example. Don’t do this.
Some Internet resources you should have in your toolbox include:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL
http://www.hwn.org/tools/streaming-audio.html – Hurricane Watch Net Streaming Audio.
Note that the audio feed is only active when the net is active.
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ & http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
– Hurricane Forecast Models
Satellite imagery? We’ve got it!
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/
HurricaneZone.net – Tropical Cyclone HQ™
Navy/NRL TC_PAGES Page
Sector Images: Gulf of Mexico – NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
Sector Images: Caribbean – NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
Sector Images: U.S. Atlantic Coast – NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
Sector Images: Tropical Atlantic – NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
Radar Sites? Try these!
Barbadoes Radar
Weather Radar: Barbados – meteoblue
Cuba Radar
Tiempo Actual, Red de Radares Meteorológicos de Cuba (insmet.cu)
Leeward Islands – Guadeloupe & Martinique Radar
ANIMATION SATELLITE et RADAR de PRECIPITATION par Météo-France (meteofrance.gp)
Mexico Radar
Live Weather Radar – Mexico | RainViewer
Puerto Rico Radar
NWS Radar (weather.gov)
United States Dual Pol Radar
COD NEXRAD: LOT
(Note that the COD site will default to Illinois. Chose the radar site you want from the radar site map on the upper right side of the screen. To find the map look for the first icon under “NEXRAD Base Reflectivity & click the icon. A map of the US with every NEXRAD site in the continental US, Alaska, Hawaii, Guam and Puerto Rico.
For the most reliable storm information, the National Hurricane Service and the local National Weather Service Forecast Offices for your area and the areas affected should always be your prime source.
The local offices know the historical conditions, topographical factors and the local quirks which make up the microclimate of the area, which may influence or alter situations on a local level, which a forecaster 500 miles away, no matter how good they may be, might not have a clue about.
Major media sources can be trusted, however, internet sources, especially social media prophets and gurus should never be substituted for official sources.
Social media reports and websites, until one knows their sources, the timeliness of their information, their track record of veracity and in some cases their motives, should, for one’s own safety, be viewed with a jaundiced eye and treated with the same caution as you should with all internet sources. Don’t just believe everything you read. Even if you agree with it or want it to be true. And, that applies to a very wide spectrum of subjects, as you cruise down the Disinformation Superhighway.
Don’t spread information without it being verified from authentic sources, no matter how flashy or how convincingly it may be presented. Your credibility and very possibly the safety of others is at stake.
That includes my wise weather prognostications also.
Just remember that some who would have you believe their “expert opinions” are also the same ones who would have you believe that King Charles is a shape shifting lizard dude. And, though I have always suspected that my second-grade teacher, “Mrs. Martin” aka “Madre De Satanás”, might have actually been one, in the case of the King, it is still yet unproven.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Hurricane Tracking Gleams And Glints From Mark’s Crystal Ball
I’ve always enjoyed trying to second-guess the National Hurricane Center. It’s fun! Many times our forecasts agree, they have outguessed me an honorable number of times & every now and then, when Divine Providence intervenes, I have beaten them.
The following are some random hints and items I have stored in my dusty brain, which every now and then come into play as I gaze into my tropical crystal ball.
The first thing I will touch on is the name itself – “Hurricane” and its origin.
Some believe the name originated from “huracan” which was the Carib peoples of Northern South America term for “evil wind”. Others credit the Mayans of Central America and believe that is originates from “Hurakan”, the Mayan god of wind, storm and fire. According to the Mayan Creation Myth, Hurakan caused the Great Flood after the first humans angered the gods. According to the myth, he lived in the windy mists above the floodwaters and repeatedly called forth the earth until land came up from beneath the seas.
Whichever its origin, it is known that the names Hurican and Hurikan predate the appearance of Europeans on the horizons of what would become known as the “Americas”, stretching back into the dim mists of antiquity.
The Spanish word for “Hurricane” is “Huracan” to this day.
A couple of terms which you have undoubtedly heard of is “El Niño” & “La Niña”.
El Niño or more precisely the “El Niño Southern Oscillation” (ENSO), is a planetary-scale climate variation caused by interactions between the atmosphere and the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, which in turn affects the tropical climatology of the Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic Ocean.
El Niño refers to unusually warm ocean temperatures that occur every 2–7 years around Christmas time along Peruvian coast, extending into equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, while La Niña refers to unusual cooler temperatures. A normal temperature is referred to as “neutral”.
Though many factors are used in making seasonal hurricane forecasts, El Niño & La Niña weigh heavily in the process.
The warm El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins due to lower vertical wind shear, weaker trade winds and greater instability, while suppressing it in the Atlantic basin due to stronger wind shear tearing and shredding the thunderstorm columns of storms trying to form, stronger trade winds hampering large scale organization and greater atmospheric stability.
The cool La Niña does the opposite suppressing hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins and enhancing activity in the Atlantic basin.
2024 is La Niña year, which is one of the reasons why 2024 is expected that we will have a vigorous tropical season.
Some other hurricane facts are:
The maximum number of tropical systems that the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) can simultaneously contain, and support is five storms.
If major tropical systems get too close to one another they don’t merge as thunderstorms often do. The upper-level winds associated with each storm counteract or buffets each other preventing this from occurring.
If you have a large storm and a smaller storm enters the influence or wind field of the larger storm, the smaller storm will tend to rotate counterclockwise around the primary storm in a process called the Fujiwhara Effect.
If the smaller storm is very weak, say a tropical storm versus a Category 4 storm, it is possible that the smaller storms circulation can be totally disrupted by the larger storm and then it can be absorbed into the larger storm’s circulation. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNjUSsqJgek&feature=relmfu as Typhoon Ma-On gobbles up Tropical Storm Tokage in 2011.
Tropical systems, for all of their tremendous energy, are totally without an engine or steering mechanism, but are at the mercy of the whims of the upper-level winds. A tropical system can spin all it wants to, but unless the storms thunderstorm columns reach high enough to snag the upper-level winds, and then act as a sail, the storm is going nowhere fast. If the upper-level winds die down, the storm can drift aimlessly for days.
If the storm sits still long enough, it will begin to dissipate due to it stirring up the deeper cooler waters beneath it and it cooling the sea surface temperature below the 80 degree critical threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. This is “upwelling”. The one exception to this rule is if it is sitting over the Gulf Stream, as the incoming current will continually replenish the warm water beneath the storm.
Air pollution or the lack thereof can influence tropical activity. NOAA has found that a 50% decrease in pollution particles and droplets in Europe and the U.S. is linked to a 33% increase in Atlantic storm formation in the past couple decades, while the opposite is happening in the Pacific with more pollution and fewer typhoons. Less pollution lets more sunlight to reach the ocean surface and vice versa.
Saharan sand blown across the Atlantic and into the Gulf will limit tropical development by blocking sunlight. This is a common occurrence which happens every spring and summer.
A well-formed storm will have a perfectly circular Central Dense Overcast or CDO, an area of thunderstorms surrounding the eye wall, with “feeder bands” of thunderstorms spiraling inward counterclockwise, parallel to the storm’s inbound horizontal winds, and “feeding” energy from the warm tropical ocean into the storm.
The winds being drawn into the eye, once arriving can only go in one direction – up – and in a well formed storm the system will be capped by high pressure, which helps evacuate these winds as they reach the stratosphere. This forms a false cirrus shield of clouds rotating in a clockwise fashion, as the winds are vented outward. If the storm has a tear drop shape or a long plume of clouds extending from the storm, this indicates heavy shearing, which will limit its growth, or shred the circulation. The storm will be veered by the shearing and try to deflect towards the direction of the plume.
A poorly organized storm can have a completely exposed center, with the cloud shield nowhere near the center. Until it starts “stacking up” it will remain a weak storm.
Intense, Category 3 or greater hurricanes will go through a process called an “eyewall replacement cycle”. In this case the eyewall contracts so small that some of the outer rain bands may strengthen and form an outer eyewall, causing the storm to weaken by robbing energy from the inner eyewall and will eventually choke it out completely and replace it, causing the storm to re-intensify.
This is a common occurrence. Less common is when you have a triple eyewall, as was the case with Typhoon June and Hurricane Juliette.
The fastest intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Hurricane Wilma in 2006, which in 24 hours went from 70 mph to 155 mph and then vacationed in the Yucatan.
The fastest intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 Hurricane occurred with Wilma & Hurricane Felix, which took just 54 hours to bloom and then blessed Nicaragua with its presence in 2007.
Honorable mention also goes to Hurricane Delta, which took just took just 36 hours to grow from a Tropical Depression to a Category 4 storm in October 2020.
The World Champion is Super Typhoon Hagibus which grew from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 5 storm in only 18 hours in 2019.
Tropical systems cannot penetrate frontal boundaries. If a tropical system is threatening the coast, and you see that a front will be approaching the coast from the West, don’t worry about the coast, as it will either stall the storm, deflect it to the Northeast or as in the case of 2009’s Tropical Storm Danny, it can absorb a weak storm.
When looking at hurricane forecast model ensembles, RAL | Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project | Real-Time Guidance (ucar.edu) you can judge the “confidence” of the models by the grouping of the plotted tracks. If the plots are tightly grouped together, you can have “high confidence” in the reliability of the track and if the timing given by the plots agree, that also. The narrower the spread, the greater the confidence, and the wider the spread, the lesser the confidence. Some tracks will be obviously wrong, those you can dismiss. If the forecast tracks go look like they were written by a drunken spider, with paths going in every direction at once, that storm is heading nowhere fast.
One must be very cautious of jumping to conclusions when they see a forecast model indicating a tropical system and then blasting on the internet that “it’s about to get real in Mobile” and then causing people to panic and spread even more rumors online, when in fact that one model shows nothing 12 hours later. A single model can be misleading or just plain wrong. Consistency is the key. If a model consistently and persistently shows a system, then you know that THAT model thinks something will happen. But what do the other models say? Do they agree with the intensity and forecast track? Do they even show anything at all? That’s why the NHC is the best place to get your information.
The NHC issues outlooks for 2 days and 7 days. Beyond that everything is guesswork.
If a storm exists, they will issue full advisories every 12 hours and intermediate advisories every 6 hours.
One staple of NHC graphics is the “forecast cone” or “cone of uncertainty”, which represents the probable track of the center of the tropical cyclone.
The size of the cone is drawn so that about two-thirds of the time, the center of the storm will remain in the cone.
The cone does not take the size or shape of the storm into account, only where they think the center will be located. Some storms are large with damaging winds extending far beyond the cone. Some storms are compact, and the damaging winds lie within a small area in the cone. Some storms are lopsided, with nothing much happening on the western side leading people to carp about “over hyped forecasts for ratings” while the same distance away on the eastern side of the storm people are literally hanging on for dear life.
It is always to be remembered that a hurricane is not a point on a map; impacts often occur well outside of the core.
The cone indicates the forecast up to five days out from the last recorded position of the storm, with each increase in time from this initial period, the error factor grows.
Forecast Period (hours) Average NHC Forecast Track Error (miles)
12 9.1
24 26.3
36 42.0
48 56.9
72 73.8
96 109.7
120 221.7
This is why one should always get the latest information from the NHC, as they are constantly fine tuning their forecasts.
Tropical storms and hurricanes are steered by winds aloft, and the overall track can be a function of a storm’s intensity. These days, intensity forecasts still have some limitations, but there is a concerted effort to make improvements.
Theoretically Tropical Storms will lose strength over land. The 1997 version of Danny (which came up I-65 reached Birmingham and then turned East heading along I-20 towards Atlanta, as if He knew what he was doing) forgot this and strengthened while over the swamps of South Carolina and then moved into the Atlantic as a rejuvenated system heading for New England. The theory at that time was that the swamps were so warm and humid that the storm “thought” it was over the sea. Now they say it was due to the effects a frontal system closely following the storm. I always preferred the first explanation, as it seemed more logical, if not niftier.
Storms named “Danny” and I are old companions, incidentally. In 1985 I accidentally managed to intercept Hurricane Danny a few hours after it struck Louisiana. I remember the feeder bands passing with heavy rain and gusts, and then it calming and clearing in between waves. “Looks like it can’t decide whether it’s coming or going” said the old guy at a truck stop where I was refueling. I also remember making a ham sandwich for an old dog at a rest stop. Old Shep looked hungry, so I fixed him one. He woofed it down, thanked me kindly and then disappeared into the mist.
If a storm strikes just West of Alabama, expect sorry weather. If it strikes just East of Alabama, expect dry weather and lowering humidity, as the storm drags the moisture away with it.
If a 120 MPH storm is moving North at 20 MPH the wind field around the eye will be affected as follows. The winds on the Eastern side combine and are in effect 140 MPH, while the winds to the West subtract and are in effect 100 MPH. This is the “fast moving hurricane rule”.
If the Eastern Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet & if the Atlantic Basin is active the Eastern Pacific Basin will be quiet.
Category 5 storms have never occurred in both the Atlantic & Pacific Basins in the same year.
Hurricanes can cross Central America from either the Atlantic or Pacific Basins, enter the other Basin and restrengthen and be renamed. The last being in 1996 when Category 1 Hurricane Cesar which scraped Northern South America, crossed Central America & restrengthened into Category 4 Hurricane Douglas.
Then there is the case of 1961’s Hurricane Hattie, which formed in the Caribbean, stuck Central America on Halloween, dissipated, then after reaching the Pacific, her remnants helped generate Tropical Storm Simone on November 1. Simone then turned Northwest striking Southern Mexico on November 2, dissipated and her remnants crossed Mexico, entering the Gulf of Mexico. These remnants in turn helped generate Tropical Storm Inga, which dissipated on November 8.
Alphabetical name position can’t be used as an indicator of possible storm strength. Andrew and Opal, both unruly guests, with names toward the opposite ends of the alphabet, are good examples.
Never underestimate the potential impacts of late season storms. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch was active from October 22 – November 5, 1998, with maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH. This storm struck Central America, Yucatán Peninsula & South Florida causing 6.2 billion dollars in damage and caused 11,000 deaths.
Remember that winds do not blow OUT of a hurricane; they are drawn INTO the storm in a spiraling motion. By factoring in the Coriolis Effect of the Earth’s rotation and the counter-effects of surface friction you can determine the general direction of any tropical storm or non-tropical low-pressure center using the surface wind direction as follows:
Wind Direction Storm Center Location
South North West
Southeast West
East Southwest
Northeast South
North Southeast
Northwest East
West Northeast
Southwest North
Calm winds suddenly occurring during a hurricane indicates the eye is over you. The winds will return just as suddenly, often stronger in the opposite direction.
My sister’s family was living at Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines in 1974, when Typhoon Bidang passed directly over. When the winds suddenly died down, they knew they were in the eye. Suddenly there was a knock on the door and opening it she found a delivery van with the furniture she had ordered. The Filipinos crew unloaded everything, said “thank you” and drove off into the darkness as the rear of the eyewall appeared and began blowing at full force.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………
NHC Hurricane Tracking Chart PDF’s
Here are handy hurricane tracking charts from the National Hurricane Center.
For the Atlantic Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf
For the Pacific Ocean: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_epacific.pdf
Someone once asked me “why do you bother tracking the Pacific ones?” For practice, so that when the Atlantic ones do appear you are already ahead of the game experience wise.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Mark’s Almanac
Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30th day.
What June was named for is uncertain. Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter. Juno was the goddess of marriage and a married couple’s household, so some consider it good luck to be married in this month, which is why June has become a month for so many marriages.
The beginning of meteorological Summer is June 1.
Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms.
Hurricane season begins, June 1, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years.
The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with other storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland.
From 1851 to 2023 there have been 102 Tropical Storms and 33 Hurricanes, of which 19 impacted the United States. The most notable June hurricane was Audrey, one of the deadliest tropical cyclones in US history, which killed 416 as it devastated the southwestern Louisiana coast in 1957.
The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa. Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June 4th 50% of the year’s tornadoes have occurred.
Days continue to grow longer as the Sun’s angle above the noonday horizon increases from 78.5 degrees at the beginning of the month to maximum of 79.9 on Summer Solstice on June 21 and then lowering to 79.6 degrees at the month’s end. Daylight increases from 14 hours 14 minutes on June 1 to the maximum daylight of 14 hours 23 minutes at Summer Solstice on June 21 and then decreases to 14 hours 21 minutes on June 30.
Sunrise and sunset times for Birmingham are:
June 1 Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 7:52 PM
June 15 Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 7:59 PM
June 30 Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:01 PM
Before we precede, a few words about the recent aurora.
In 2003 I had a beagle named Wendy. One October night, about 9 PM, as I was feeding her, she kept staring at the northern sky. Once before she had done this and I spotted an owl sitting in the tree, so I thought maybe Hootie had come back. But, I looked and saw nothing, so I came back in.
An hour later, a TV meteorologist, possibly named Spann, said Alabama had been treated to a rare display of the Northern Lights.
In 2024 I have an Australian Shepherd / Collie named Bo. On May 11 around 9:00 PM I let him out to take care of business and he stood on the deck looking at the northern sky. Thirty minutes earlier I had gone outside trying to spy out the Northern Lights and saw scattered clouds and the skyglow of Birmingham and nothing else, so I didn’t go back.
At 9:00 PM, according to the security camera at work, the Northern Lights appeared over Birmingham and moved across the northeastern and eastern sky for 20 minutes and then disappeared, never to return.
Two things I learned from this experience: 1. I should listen to my dogs, 2. These are not necessarily “once in a lifetime” or “once in a century” events.
The solar conditions leading to the 2024 event were stronger that the 2003 event, but, not as strong as an event in March 1989.
The sunspot AR3664, which caused the auroral outbreak has survived a two week long passed behind the Sun and reappeared, bearing a new number, AR 3697 and is still spitting out X class flares as it reemerges from the southeastern limb of the Sun.
So, who knows? Maybe Bo the Dog will see the aurora again, and maybe Mark will be smart enough to pay attention this time.
I hear varying descriptions of the aurora’s actual visibility in Alabama. Pictures posted, many taken with smart phones in night mode, which are more infrared sensitive than the human eye, show an impressive display, however, naked eye reports vary from “grayish, which a little pink” to “I couldn’t see them without the phone.”
Aurora sightings in Alabama are normally red. Why is that?
The color of an aurora is dependent on the aurora’s altitude.
In the God forsaken far northern realms, aurora’s are usually green. Green auroras can reach up to 150 miles in height.
During intense solar activity there can be blue auroras up to 60 miles high and violet auroras above 60 miles, but being that low in altitude, and that high in latitude, they will not be seen in God’s country, the South.
A red aurora, which is only visible during intense solar activity, occurs at altitudes of over 150 miles. If you are seeing a red aurora, you are seeing the tops of the display. The bottom may be over Illinois. Not unlike having cirrus over Birmingham streaming from the anvils of thunderstorms over Mississippi.
Observers in the UK say that if a red aurora starts to turn yellow, the “fun is about over”, as the aurora is subsiding.
One resident of Alaska says that auroral displays come spurts of activity and vary wildly during the event and can suddenly die away.
With the sunspot group rotating our way again, there are certain numbers to watch.
One, the Kp-index, describes disturbances in the horizontal component of Earth’s magnetic field with a range of 0–9, with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is based on the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval.
The Other is the Bz. The north-south direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), is the Bz, measured on nanoTeslas (nT). When the north-south direction of IMF flips south, the magnetic field lines connect to the earth’s magnetosphere which faces north. A rift opens that allows the solar wind to pour into our magnetosphere. The Bz becomes negative, for example –10nT, which is a good sign that auroras will start to appear.
So, cutting through the mumbo jumbo, if the Planetary Kp-Index goes into the 8 or 9 level and the Bz level goes into negative values, it’s a good sign that an aurora may appear.
All of these readings, and more may be found at Auroral activity | SpaceWeatherLive.com and
ON6ZQ | Propagation / N0NBH
We are at or near the speak of Solar Cycle 25. The “fireworks” may be far from over.
Looking skyward, the Sun, magnitude -26.7 is in Taurus, The Bull.
Mercury, magnitude -0.6 in Aires, The Ram, is lost in the glow of the Sun.
He will reach his closet distance from the Sun, or “Perihelion”, on June 13, and will pass behind the Sun, or reach “Superior Conjunction”, on June 14,
Venus, magnitude -3.9 in Taurus, The Bull, is lost in the glow of the Sun.
She will pass behind the Sun, or reach Superior Conjunction, on June 14.
Earth, and her Moon, magnitude -4.0, as viewed from the Sun, is in the constellation Ophiuchus, The Serpent Bearer.
Mars, with his moons Phobos and Deimos magnitude +1.1, in Pisces, The Fish, is emerging into the predawn sky.
At the first of the month, he rises at 3:09 AM CDT, 2 hour and 26 minutes before the Sun and reaches an altitude of 21° above the eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 4:54 AM CDT.
The Northern hemisphere’s Winter Solstice will occur on the Red Planet on June 7.
At midmonth he rises at 2:43 AM CDT, 2 hours and 51 minutes before the Sun, reaching an altitude of 26° above the eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 4:53 AM CDT.
By months end he rises at 2:17 AM CDT, 3 hours and 20 minutes before the Sun and reaches an altitude of 32° above the eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 4:57 AM CDT.
Dwarf Planet Ceres, magnitude +8.0 is in Sagittarius The Archer.
Jupiter, and his 95 moons and (invisible from Earth) ring magnitude –2.0, in Taurus, The Bull, is hidden in the glow of the Sun as the month begins.
He reemerges in the predawn sky on June 12
At midmonth he rises at 4:19 AM CDT, 1 hours and 15 minutes before the Sun, reaching an altitude of 10° above the eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 5:16 AM CDT.
By months end he rises at 3:32 AM CDT, 2 hours and 5 minutes before the Sun and reaches an altitude of 20° above the eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 5:20 AM CDT.
Saturn, and his 146 moons and extensive debris ring system, magnitude +1.0, in Aquarius, The Water Bearer, is visible in the dawn sky.
At the first of the month, he rises at 1:39 AM CDT, 3 hours and 56 minutes before the Sun, and reaches an altitude of 36° above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 4:56 AM CDT.
By midmonth he rises at 12:46 AM CDT, and reaches an altitude of 44° above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 4:56 AM CDT.
At months end he rises at 11:47 PM CDT, and reaches an altitude of 49° above the southern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 4:59 AM CDT.
Uranus, and his 28 moons and ring, magnitude +5.9 in Taurus, The Bull, is lost in the glow of the Sun.
Neptune, and his 16 moons and ring, magnitude 7.8 in Pisces, The Fish, is visible using a telescope in the predawn sky.
At the first of the month, he rises at 2:05 AM CDT, 3 hours and 30 minutes before the Sun, and reaches an altitude of 27° above the eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 4:26 AM CDT.
By midmonth he rises at 1:11 AM CDT, and reaches an altitude of 37° above the south-eastern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 4:23 AM CDT.
At months end he rises at 12:12 AM CDT, and reaches an altitude of 47° above the southern horizon before fading from view as dawn breaks at around 4:27 AM CDT.
Dwarf Planet Pluto, with his five moons shines at a dim +14.5 in Capricorn, The Sea Goat.
Dwarf Planet 136108 Haumea, her ring and moons Hiʻiaka and Namaka, shines at a faint magnitude of +17.3 in Bootes, The Herdsman.
Dwarf Planet 136472 Makemake with his moon S/2015 (136472) 1, nicknamed MK1 by the discovery team, shines faintly at magnitude +17.2 in Coma Berenices.
Dwarf Planet 136199 Eris and her moon Dysnomia, originally referred to as Xena and Gabrielle, is barely visible in the most powerful telescopes at magnitude +18.7 in Cetus the Sea Monster.
At least six additional bodies with the preliminary criteria for identifying dwarf planets, and though not “officially” declared as such, are generally called dwarf planets by astronomers as well.
90482 Orcus, and his moon Vanth shines at magnitude 19.1 between Hydra and Sextans, The Sextant.
50000 Quaoar, and his moon Waywot shines at magnitude +18.6 in Scutum, The Shield.
90377 Sedna, the coldest, and at one time, the most distant known place in the Solar System, glows faintly at magnitude +20.8 in Taurus, The Bull.
225088 Gonggong, originally nicknamed Snow White by the discovery team, and his moon Xiangli glows dimly at +21.5 magnitude in Aquarius, The Water Bearer.
2014 UZ224 nicknamed “DeeDee” for “Distant Dwarf” is 8.5 billion miles from the Sun, at magnitude +23.0 in Eridanus, The River.
120347 Salacia, and her moon Actaea glows at magnitude 20.7 in Andromeda, The Chained Woman. Salacia is considered a “borderline” Dwarf Planet. Some astronomers saying she “most certainly is a Dwarf Planet”, while others disagreeing based on her size, saying she is too small to have compressed into a fully solid body, to have been resurfaced, or to have collapsed into “hydrostatic equilibrium”, that is to assume spherical shape like a planet.
This dark world lies beyond the orbit of Neptune, orbiting 4,164,420,166 miles from the Sun.
Currently the most distant observable known object in the Solar System, Asteroid 2018 AG37, nicknamed “FarFarOut”, which is 12,365,836,632 miles or 18 hours, 26 minutes and 22 seconds from Earth, glows at a barely detectable +25.5 magnitude in Lynx.
The most distant man-made object, and the most distant known object in the Solar System Voyager 1, still operating after 46 years, 8 months and 22 days is 15,135,486,361 miles, or in Light Time, 22 hours, 34 minutes and 10 Seconds from Earth as of 8:10 PM, May 27, 2024, sailing 38,026 miles per hour through Ophiuchus the Serpent Bearer.
There are 1,351,400 known asteroids as of May 27, 2024, per NASA.
5632 planets beyond our solar system have now been confirmed as of May 21, 2024 per NASA’s Exoplanet Archive http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/
The Moon will be at Perigee, or her closest point from the Earth on June 2 at 228,732 Miles.
New Moon will occur at 7:40 AM CDT or 12:40 UTC on June 6. The Moon will be located on the same side of the Earth as the Sun and will not be visible in the night sky. This is the best time of the month to observe faint objects such as galaxies and star clusters because there is no moonlight to interfere.
First Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Western side illuminated, will occur June 14 at 12:19 AM or 5:19 UTC.
During the Quarter Moons the Moon’s magnitude is -10.0.
The Moon will be at Apogee, or her farthest point from the Earth on June 14 at 251,082 Miles.
Summer Solstice will occur at 2:41 PM CDT or 20:41 UTC on June 21. The North Pole of the earth will be tilted toward the Sun, which will have reached its northernmost position in the sky and will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.44 degrees north latitude. This is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the first day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.
June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore. This will occur on June 21 at 8:09 PM CDT or 1:09 UTC on June 22. The Moon will be located on the opposite side of the Earth as the Sun and its face will be fully illuminated. It is called “Strawberry Moon” for it signals the time to start harvesting strawberries, as it is peak strawberry ripening time. Other names are “Rose Moon” and “Honey Moon”.
During a Full Moon the Moon’s magnitude is -12.7.
The Moon will be at Perigee, or her closest point from the Earth on June 27 at 229,467 Miles.
The June Bootids Meteor Shower will occur from June 26th until July 2nd. It peaks on June 27th. Normally the shower is very weak, with a Zenith Hourly Rate or ZHR of 1 or 2, but occasional outbursts produce a hundred or more meteors per hour. The source of the June Bootids is Comet 7P/Pons-Winnecke, which orbits the Sun once every 6.37 years.
The Last Quarter moon will block out some of the faintest meteors with this unpredictable shower, but if you are patient, you should be able to catch quite a few good ones. Best viewing will be from a dark location after midnight.
Last Quarter Moon, or when the moon has only the Eastern side illuminated, will occur June 29 at 4:55 PM CDT or 9:55 UTC.
Around 10 PM in mid-June, Libra the Scales will be passing due South. When Alpha Librae, the lower-right of the two brightest stars of Libra, is due south, if you look directly below it you will see nothing but horizon. But, if you were at a lower latitude, say 29°, the latitude of Orlando, or points south would see our brilliant, -0.27 magnitude neighbor Alpha Centauri above the horizon.
At 4.37 light years distance, the Alpha Centauri system is nearest star system to our own.
It is a triple star consisting of Alpha Centauri A, also called Rigil Kentaurus, Alpha Centauri B or Toliman and the closest star to the Sun, Alpha Centauri C also called Proxima Centauri, 4.24 light years from Earth.
Alpha Centauri A is a near twin of our Sun in almost every way, including age, while Alpha Centauri B is somewhat smaller and dimmer but still quite like the Sun. The third member, Proxima Centauri is a much smaller red dwarf star that travels around the A-B pair.
Proxima Centauri has three known planets: Proxima b, an Earth-sized exoplanet in the habitable zone or so called “Goldilocks Zone” – not too hot and not too cold to support some form of life if it has a suitable atmosphere. Proxima c, a super-Earth, which is possibly surrounded by a huge ring system and Proxima d, which orbits very closely to the star.
Alpha Centauri A may have a Neptune-sized habitable-zone planet, though it is not yet known to be planetary in nature and could be an artifact of the discovery mechanism. Alpha Centauri B has no known planets.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
This month’s meeting will be on June 11, at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Calera.
I hope to see you there!
Mark / WD4NYL
Editor
ALERT Newsletter
